How To Win At Craps Strategy

I'm writing a series of blog posts about casino games and the good and bad strategies for playing those games.

Craps is one of my favorite casino games, so I've been looking forward to writing this one.

And the beautiful thing about craps is that it's a game of pure chance. The best strategy is just to choose the bets with the lowest edge for the house and have fun.

STRATEGY TIP #7. DON'T BELIEVE YOU ARE DUE TO WIN. Don't increase your bets because you feel you are due to win at the game of blackjack. The cards don't know and they don't care whether you are in the midst of a losing (or winning) streak. How to Bet in Craps If you want to be sure to get the best chances to win at craps, you need to pick the Pass / Don't Pass or the Come / Don't Come bets. Picking any of the four bets indicated above reduces the house advantage to 1.40%.

But I'll have some things to say about some of the strategies and systems that other writers promote, too.

They're mostly bad craps strategies.

Here's the Only Craps Strategy You Need

When you're dealing with an entirely random game – like craps – the only strategy that matters is choosing the bets with the lowest house edge and having fun.

I'll have something to say about shooters and whether they have control over the outcomes later in this post, but for now, let's just agree that games like craps are purely chance.

In other games that are entirely random, like slot machines, you don't even really need to decide which bet to place. It's chosen for you before you sit down.

When playing craps for real money, you have a handful of good bets you can make, but most of the bets on the table are bad. Just skip the bad bets, and you're all set.

The Bests Bets at the Craps Table

The best bets at the craps table are the pass line bet and the don't pass bet.

The come and don't come bets are also great wagers.

I always advise casino gamblers to try to limit their gambling to games where the house edge is lower than 2% — preferably 1.5% or lower.

The house edge for the pass and come bets is the same, 1.41%, which means they qualify.

The house edge for the don't pass and don't come bets is even lower, 1.36%, but the 0.05% isn't worth worrying about. Most people prefer to root for the shooter to succeed.

The other bet to think about at the craps table is the odds bet. This is a bet you can only place after making one of the 4 bets I already mentioned and when the shooter has set a point.

This is one of the only bets in the casino that has no house edge. It's a break-even bet, but it can be expensive.

It can also drive the effective house edge on the money you have in action down to almost nothing.

Here's how that works.

6 To 1 Craps Strategy

How the Odds Bet Changes the House Edge for the Better

If you're betting on the pass line and the shooter sets a point, you can expect to lose $1.41 for every $100 you bet. That's on average and in the long run.

If you're playing at a casino that only allows you to place an odds bet at 1X the size of your pass line bet, you can put another $100 into action.

Your expected loss remains $1.41, though, which effectively cuts the house edge in half, from 1.41% to 0.71%.

If you're able to bet 2X your original bet on the odds bet, you can lower that even further to 0.36%. (You have $300 in action, but your expected loss is still only $1.41.)

The more you're able to bet on the odds bet, the lower the house edge for all the money you have in action becomes.

It's clear why betting on the pass line and taking the most odds that you can is an effective strategy. With the odds bet, you can get the house edge in craps lower than 0.5% at least some of the time at the table, making it an even better game than blackjack.

And what's more, you don't have to memorize basic strategy to get the low house edge at craps.

You just need a big enough casino bankroll to make the right bets, and you need enough sense to avoid the bad bets at the table – of which there are many.

Any Strategy that Involves Placing ANY Other Bets at the Craps Table Is a BAD Craps Strategy

There's a reason gambling experts measure bets according to their house edge. That's because it's the single best indicator of how good or bad a bet is.

The house edge is a statistical estimate of how much money you'll lose as a percentage of your original bet over the long run.

If the house edge is 1.41%, the casino expects to win an average of $1.41 every time you bet $100.

If the house edge is 16.66%, the casino expects to win an average of $16.66 every time you bet $100.

Which bet looks like the better bet for the casino?

And which one looks like the better bet for the gambler?

It shouldn't be hard to make the distinction.

Even the best of the bad bets on the craps table are inferior to the 1.41% or 1.36% you can get from the pass, don't pass, come, and don't come bets.

And trust me on this:

You can have PLENTY of fun sticking with the basic bets at the craps table.

Betting Systems Where You Raise and Lower the Size of Your Bets Are Bad Strategies

The classic example of this kind of betting system is the Martingale System, where you double the size of your bets after each loss. When you do this repeatedly, you eventually win back the money you've lost along with a profit of one unit.

The problem with a system like the Martingale is that you'll eventually run into a big enough losing streak that it will wipe out all those small profits and then some.

Most people underestimate how quickly a bet's size gets when doubling after every loss.

They also overestimate how likely they are to avoid long losing streaks.

If you double a $5 bet once, that's $10.

But if you run into a losing streak of 8 bets in a row, you're looking at having to bet $640 to make up for your losses.

Also, every roll of the dice is an independent event. The odds don't change based on how many times you've won or lost in a row.

You might think the probability of losing that 8^th bet is lower than the likelihood of losing the first one, but the truth is that the dice have no memory. They have the same 6 sides, no matter how many times you've lost in a row.

Each bet in craps is an independent event, and any betting system will assume that the odds are changing based on how many times in a row you've won or lost.

Money Management Strategies Don't Hurt Anything, but They Won't Improve Your Odds of Winning, Either

Money management strategies involve having strict gambling discipline about how much of your bankroll you're willing to risk before quitting the game. They also require you to stop when you've won an arbitrary amount of money.

Money management techniques are often used in conjunction with betting systems.

Here's an example of a money management strategy in craps:

You decide your bankroll for the session is $250, and you're playing for $5 per roll of the dice.

Your stop-loss limit is $100, so, if your bankroll drops to $150, you must quit the craps session and go do something else.

Your win goal is $250, so once your bankroll gets up to $500, you must quit the game and go do something else.

This kind of strategy might increase your chances of walking away from the game a winner.

But that's only because a lot of gamblers will just keep playing until they've lost their entire stake. They just don't generally have a lot of sense about that sort of thing.

The Jury's Out on Dice Setting or Dice Control

I've seen multiple reputable gambling writers express interest and some belief that some craps shooters can influence the probability of specific outcomes. I'm skeptical – in the extreme – but I'll give it an appropriate amount of credence.

The idea is that you hold the dice a specific way – 'setting' the dice – then throw with a minimum amount of force – just enough to hit the back wall and eliminate most of the rolling action.

A controlled shooting expert doesn't have to be perfect. Instead, they're trying to be like someone who's playing darts. They improve the probability enough to change the negative expectation on a bet to a positive expectation.

You can buy books and videos explaining how to get an edge at craps this way, but I can't imagine the amount of practice and record-keeping required to have any confidence in your ability to change the odds.

Imagine if you spent 1000 hours trying to learn how to control the dice and coming up short. Maybe you just don't have the knack for it.

That doesn't sound like a good deal to me.

I'd rather learn to count cards in blackjack.

Conclusion

Those are the best and the worst of the strategies I know of for playing craps in the casino. I know plenty of people who would disagree with every recommendation I've made, but the math behind the game doesn't lie.

The best strategy is to stick with the bets with the lowest house edge and have as much fun as you can.

I've never read a blog post or an article about the game of craps or craps strategy that didn't mention how exciting the game is.

Okay. Now that we have that out of the way.

The purpose of this post is to introduce you to the 10 most fundamental concepts in craps strategy. This is not a get rich quick scheme. I don't have any systems to sell you.

My only interest is in helping you save money at the gambling tables and have fun while you're doing it.

The truth is that craps is a negative expectation game. If you play long enough, you'll eventually go broke.

But you can get more entertainment for your money if you understand some of the basics of craps strategy.

1- Start Your Craps Career by Sticking with the Most Easily Understood Bets on the Table

The basic bets in craps are the pass and don't pass bets. These are bets on whether the shooter 'succeeds' or not. These are also the best bets on the table. The house edge for each of those bets is, respectively, 1.41% and 1.36%.

Both those bets pay even money, which make them marginally less exciting than some of the other bets. But the payout isn't what's important for each bet. It's the house edge.

That's a mathematical estimate of how much of each bet you expect to lose on average over the long run. It's always expressed as a percentage.

If you bet $100 on every roll of the dice and place the pass bet every time, the casino expects your losses to average $1.41 for every bet you place.

This is exceptionally low compared to most bets at most other casino games. In fact, it's significantly better than most of the other bets at the craps table.

At an average craps table, you'll see about 100 rolls of the dice per hour. If you lose $1.41 on average for each of them, you'll see an hourly loss average out to $141.

That sounds awful until you compare it to other games like slot machines, which usually have a house edge of 7% or more, or roulette, which has a house edge of 5.26%.

Most of the time I recommend taking the bet with the lowest house edge, but in craps, I think it's so much more fun to root for the shooter that it's worth the 0.05% difference in house edge.

2- Continue Your Craps Career by Placing One of Only 2 Bets in the Casino with a House Edge of 0%

A bet with a house edge of 0% is a bet that will break even in the long run. I only know of 2 bets in the casino with a house edge of 0%:

• 1. The double up bet in video poker
• 2. The odds bet in craps

When you've made a pass or don't pass bet in craps, you can place a 2^nd bet if and when the shooter sets a point. You win this 2^nd bet if the shooter succeeds if you placed a pass bet, and you win it if the shooter fails if you placed a don't pass bet.

The tricky thing about the odds bet is that it isn't labeled on the craps table. You place the bet by putting the additional chips behind your initial pass or don't pass bet.

Since this bet has no house edge, it's an opportunity to get more money into action without any real long-term risk.

Some writers combine the 2 bets together for purposes of illustrating the total house edge on the 2 bets combined. I don't see much point in doing that.

I can tell you, though, that the best strategy decision you can make in craps is to take the biggest odds bet that you can, every time it's available.

The odds bet is part of what causes the crazy streaks of luck in the game, but that's also part of the charm of craps.

3- Stay Far Away from the Bets in the Center of the Table

Not every bet at the craps table offers good odds. In fact, most of the bets offer lousy odds. I mentioned earlier that you can measure how good a bet on a casino game is by how low the house edge is.

Let's take a look at the house edge for some of the bets in the middle of the craps table:

The 'any 7' bet pays off 4 to 1 if the shooter rolls any total of 7 on the next roll. The odds of winning that bet, though, are 5 to 1. The difference is the house edge.

• Assume you bet $100 on any 7 for 36 rolls. And also assume that you have a perfect distribution for those rolls.
• You'll win that bet 6 times, but you'll lose 30 times.
• With a 4 to 1 payout, you'll win $400 X 6, or $2400.
• But you'll have lost $100 X $30, or $3000.
• Your net loss is $600.
• Since you placed 36 bets, you can average the amount lost into the number of bets to get your average loss per bet. In this case, it's $16.67, which is 16.67% of $100.

And that's just one example.

The house edge on the various bets in the center of the craps table range from 2.78% to 16.67%. None of them are good bets.

Just stick with the pass and don't pass bets. Skip all the sucker bets in the middle of the table.

4- Steer Clear of Betting Systems Where You Increase and Decrease the Size of Your Bet Based on Previous Outcomes

You'll sometimes see craps 'experts' suggesting that you use some variation of the Martingale System for craps. The Martingale is a betting system used with even money bets at table games. You double the size of your bet after each loss until you win.

SEEMS fool-proof. But it's not.

Here's an example of how it might work at the craps table:
You bet $5 (the minimum in this casino) on the pass line bet, and you lose. On your next bet, you bet $10. If you win this time, you'll recoup your $5 loss on the previous bet and have a $5 profit to show for it.

But if you lose again, you double the size of your last bet again, this time, from $10 to $20. This recoups the $5 you lost and the $10 you lost, and you have a $5 profit.

You can continue this progression as long as your money holds out and as long as your bet stays beneath the table max.

The problem with the Martingale System is that doubling the size of your bets increases your bet size far faster than you'd expect. You might think it's hard to lose the same bet 8 or 9 times in a row, but it happens more often than you think.

When it does, you see a devastating loss. In fact, that loss will be so devastating that you'll lose all those tiny profits you made previously.

Here's what 8 bets in a row look like if you start with $5:

• 1. $5
• 2. $10
• 3. $20
• 4. $40
• 5. $80
• 6. $160
• 7. $320
• 8. $640

A lot of craps tables with a $5 minimum have a $500 maximum bet. If you lose 7 times in a row, you break the system and can't continue.

Also, if you lose 7 times in a row, you'll have lost $635 already. To place a $640 bet at this point means you'll have put $1275 in action over the course of 8 bets.

And if you win that final bet?

You're only up $5 for the entire session.

Betting systems like the Martingale have no way of overcoming the house edge. They seem like a good idea in the short run, but in the long run, you'll lose just as much money (or more) using this kind of betting system as you would if you just randomly varied the size of your bets.

5- Don't Try to Hedge Your Bets Either

You're hedging your bets when you place a bet intended to offset the losses from another bet.

An example might make it easier to understand:
You place a $10 bet on the pass line. You simultaneously bet $2 on the 'any craps' bet. (The any craps bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, or 12.)

It's impossible to lose with this bet. If the shooter rolls a 7 or an 11 on the come out roll, you win $10. Sure, you'll lose the $2 any craps bet, but you'll have a net win of $8.

If the shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12 on the come out roll, you win $14 (7 to 1). Sure, you'll have lost the $10 pass line bet, but you'll have a net win of $4.

This seems like a no-brainer strategy. The problem is that it doesn't account for when the shooter rolls a point.

How often does this happen?

• You have 36 possible outcomes in a come out roll.
• 4 of those possible outcomes are any craps. (1,1; 1,2; 2,1; 6,6).
• 8 of those possible outcomes win the pass line bet (1,6; 2,5; 3,4; 4,3; 5,2; 6,1; 5,6; 6,5).
• That's 12 possible outcomes where you're guaranteed a profit.
• But on the other 24 outcomes (2 out of 3 times), the shooter will set a point. In each of those cases, the 'any craps' bet loses right out of the gate. You still face the house edge when the shooter tries to roll the point.

The hedge bet doesn't change your odds of winning. It only looks that way.

Almost all craps betting systems involve raising and lowering your bets based on when you're winning or losing. But they also often involve systems for hedging your bets.

Don't bother unless you think it sounds like a fun way to place bets. Even then, the house edge on the any craps bet is higher than you should be willing to pay.

6- Play Craps for the Lowest Stakes that Remain Interesting for You

Winning Craps Method

You can calculate how much an hour of gambling at a given game will cost (on average) by multiplying the house edge by the number of bets per hour. You multiply that by the average size of your bet to get your expected hourly loss.

In the short run, this number is meaningless. It's just a long-term expectation, and your results will vary from that mathematical expectation. But the longer you play, the closer you'll eventually come to seeing the mathematical expectation become a reality.

This means that in the long run, you'll lose twice as much money betting $10 per roll as you would if you were betting $5 per roll. The bigger your bet size, the more expected loss is.

I have just as much fun at the craps table betting $5 as I do betting $10 or $20, but you might have more money than I do. (I am, after all, only a poor gambling blogger.)

Years ago, I read a great book called Poker Night by John Vorhaus. He wrote about how to choose the stakes for your poker game. If you're playing for such low stakes that winning or losing doesn't matter to you at all, poker is an exercise in boredom.

He suggest playing in a game based on your 'gulp limit.' That's the amount of money that would make you swallow really hard if you lost your wallet with that amount in it.

That's the size of your starting bankroll—your gulp limit. You can back-calculate the stakes you want to play for by dividing that bankroll by 10 or 20.

If your gulp limit is $200, you should be playing for $10 or $20 per roll.

7- Find the Casinos Who Offer You the Biggest Odds Bet Multiples

Since the odds bet offsets the house edge on the pass line and don't pass line bet in proportion to how much you wager on it, the more you bet on it, the better off you are. But casinos have a maximum bet size for the odds bet based on a multiple of your original pass or don't pass bet.

If you're betting $5 per roll, the most you can bet on the odds bet is $10. If you're betting $1000 per roll (you high roller, you), you can bet $2000 on the odds bet.

You can find casinos in Las Vegas which allow you to take 10X or even 15X odds, but 2X is more common. You should look for casinos which offer bigger limits on the odds bet.

Some casinos have 3x 4X 5X odds bet maximums. In these casinos, you can bet 3X your original bet if the point is 4 or 10, 4X your original bet if the point is 5 or 9, and 5X your original bet if the point is 6 or 8.

This is meant to simplify payouts for the craps dealers. Those bets pay off at 2 to 1, 3 to 2, and 6 to 5, respectively.

If you make the pass line bet with the maximum odds bet at a 3X 4X 5X table, the payout is always 7 to 1 on your total action. This makes it easier for the dealer.

Still, you're better off finding a casino that allows you to bet more than that on the odds bet.

My suggestion for the best place to play craps in Las Vegas is the Casino Royale. It's on the Strip, and it features some of the lowest betting minimums and highest possible odds bets in Las Vegas. You can bet $2 per roll of the dice in craps, and you can place an odds bet of up to 100X, or $200.

The cumulative house edge on a pass line bet taking maximum odds drops to just 0.02%. You won't find a bet (or combination of bets) anywhere in any casino in the world with such a low house edge—unless you're a card counter or an expert video poker player. (Those professions are outside the scope of this post, though—sorry.)

8- Consider Learning How to Set and Control the Dice

The idea behind dice setting and dice control is that a skilled shooter can affect the probability of getting a certain total on the dice. If skill comes into play when you're rolling the dice, craps becomes a game more like darts than roulette.

I'm skeptical of this possibility, but I've seen gambling writers and experts I respect who lend the idea some credence. Even if it's possible, I don't think it's practical for most gamblers to try this. Here's why:

To be able to control the dice, you'd need to practice. You can't practice for free in a casino, so you'd need to build or buy a casino-equivalent craps table to put in your garage or basement.

Then you'd need to practice for an insane number of repetitions to have any degree of statistical certainty that your skill is in fact affecting your outcomes. Anyone can look like they have skill by getting lucky on a dozen throws of the dice in a row. You'll need to record your results until you have confidence in your statistical results.

That's a lot of work for something you might turn out not to be good at. It's also a lot of work on something that might not even be possible.

I don't know of any casinos changing their rules or game conditions to combat dice setters. So I'm skeptical of how big a problem it is.

9- Try Playing Free Craps Games Online

I shouldn't have to go into a lot of detail about this tip for it to make sense. If you're playing craps without risking any money, you can't lose any money. Online casinos offer play money games where you don't risk a thing. At a lot of these casinos, you don't even have to register an account.

How To Win At Craps Strategy Without

10- See if You Can Find Some Buddies to Play 'Street Craps' With

Street craps is the game played in an alleyway or someone's house. You'll see people playing street craps in a lot of old movies.

The most important difference between street craps and casino craps is the lack of betting options. In street craps, you only have the 2 betting options—pass and don't pass. The rules for these bets work the same as they would if you were playing in a casino.

You're just betting against the other players.

How Do You Win At Craps Every Time

Conclusion

I can't imagine a game in the casino more fun than craps. Luckily, it also offers some of the best odds in the casino—IF you place the right bets. Once you learn the basics of the game, it's easy to do well at craps at least part of the time. Just stick with the bets which have a low house edge.

The rest of what you need to know about craps strategy can be boiled down to avoiding bad strategies. The bad bets at the craps table are awful. There's never a reason to place a bet on something as silly as 'hard eight,' even though PT Anderson made a great movie with that title.

How To Win Playing Craps

Craps is a notoriously streaky game. This is good news and bad news. It means you can have big winning streaks. Sadly, it also means you can have fast losing streaks, too.

And the losing streaks are marginally more common than the winning streaks. That's how a game with a negative expectation for the player works. Play long enough, and you'll lose all your money.

But you can sure have some fun and walk away a winner from the craps table once in a while.